A moneyline bet simply involves you picking one of two teams to win the game. No catch, no angle, just the right answer or the wrong answer. Each team/person in a matchup for a moneyline betting option is given a separate numerical value for bettors to wager on and these are called 'odds.'.
Money line betting is the most common type of basketball bet. Money line betting is especially popular in NCAA basketball games. It is considered to be straight betting. In money lines you are simply betting on who will win the match; it is very straightforward, it does not even matter what the score is, what matters is who wins – period. That said, different money lines are applied to reflect the strengths of the teams.
Three Types of Odds
- NBA Money Line betting is the simplest and a popular form of NBA betting. With NBA money line betting you are simply picking which team will outright win the game. NBA Money Line odds will list the the favorite in a given game as a negative number (ie.200) that means you will have to bet that amount to win $100. Money line odds list the underdog as a positive number (i.e. +500) that means you will win.
- Betting on the NBA is popular among sports bettors and there are countless ways you can have a wager on an NBA game. With its popularity and variance in markets, NBA betting odds are often competitively priced amongst online sportsbooks, so shopping around for the best NBA odds is key.
In most of all sports betting, the odds can be presented in three different ways: American Odds, Decimal Odds and Fractional Odds. American Odds are presented in whole numbers format like 100, 200, and so on; these are mostly used in the U.S. and most of Canada, and they are also especially popular when it comes to American football. Decimal odds are presented in a decimal format such as 1.4, 2.1, and onwards; decimal odds are mostly used in Europe and parts of Canada too, and especially popular for soccer betting (commonly known as football betting in EU). Finally, fractional odds are presented by fractions like 1/3, 2/4, 3/2, etc.
*Basketball is very popular in the U.S., with the NBA and NCAAB, hence, we will use American Odds for all of our basketball examples below.
Calculating Basketball Money Lines
* Please see illustration below to help understand money line bets, text explanation follows.
Let us say UCLA is playing Notre Dame at the NCAAB. Notre Dame is the favorite in this case and the UCLA is the underdog (less likely to win according to the experts). The odds are listed as:
- Notre Dame (-110)
- UCLA (+110)
If you are betting $110 on Notre Dame and they win, you will get $100 back. If you are betting $100 on UCLA and they win, you will get $110 back. The (-) sign represents a favorite and the fact that you have to bet more on it to win less. The (+) sign represents an underdog and the fact that you have to bet less on it to win more.
Different Money Lines
The reason why there are different money lines for different teams is, basically, to provide an incentive for players to bet on underdogs. Without money lines, most of the players would bet on the favorites since the favorites are more likely to win. If all people bet on the favorites, a sportsbook will not be able to pay off all of the players in case they win. By providing more advantageous underdog money lines like in an above example, online sportsbooks create a market for both underdogs and favorites.
Basketball Money Line Betting Tips and Strategies
You should really go out there and compare money lines across different online basketball betting sites. Researching different basketball sportsbooks is one of the most widely used basketball money line strategies out there. Find the best possible odds for yourself; for example, if you are sure that the Chicago Bulls will beat the LA Lakers in a certain game, then look for the best possible odds for Chicago. If you see that one sportsbook offers +110 and another one offers +105 for Chicago, then go for the former as it will get you $5 more for every $100 bet you make – if your bet wins of course.
Basketball Stars
When it comes to basketball, particularly NBA, research latest news about different teams' star players. In basketball, star players can score between 20%-40% of the team's points. They can make or break the team. In fact, many teams' strategies are simply based on passing the ball to their star players. Such players like Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant (now earning around the likes of $23M, the current highest paid in NBA), Shaquille O'Neal, LeBron James and others have played a vital role in performance of their teams. For example, if you are looking to bet on the Miami Heat, try to look at LeBron's form in their upcoming game. If he is not playing or is injured, then Miami Heat might really not perform that well.
Money Line Nba Tonight
Introduction
This page addresses betting on basketball, specifically the NBA. The figures in this pages are based on 6,567 historical games, from seasons beginning 2013 to 2017. It is assumed the reader knows basic sports betting terminology. If this is not the case, please visit my page on sports betting first.
Betting Against the Spread
On average, the home team wins 58.4% of the time and scores 2.70 more points than the road team. However, betting against the spread, I show road teams to be the much better value, as the following table shows. The table is based on laying 11 to win 10. The return column shows the expected percentage of money won (or lost when negative) to money bet. As you can see, betting home teams has a house edge of 6.22%, while road teams are only 2.70%.
Road or Home Team Against the Spread
| Side | Wins | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Road | 3,280 | 0.499467 | -0.026981 |
| Home | 3,159 | 0.481042 | -0.062157 |
| Push | 128 | 0.019491 | |
| Total | 6,567 | 1.000000 | -0.044569 |
The next table shows the results betting on underdogs and favorites against the spread. This does not include the 61 games where the point spread was zero. I was expecting underdogs to do significantly better, but the results proved me wrong — they did only slightly better. As you can see, the probability of the underdog winning was only 0.4% greater than favorites. The return shows the ratio of expected player win (negative indicates a loss) to money bet, assuming the player is laying 11 to win 10.
Underdog or Favorite Against the Spread
| Side | Wins | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favorite | 3,176 | 0.488165 | -0.048375 |
| Underdog | 3,202 | 0.492161 | -0.040746 |
| Push | 128 | 0.019674 | |
| Total | 6,506 | 1.000000 | -0.044560 |
Overs and Unders
The following table shows how often each game went over, under, and fell exactly on the over/under line. The return column shows the ratio of player win to money bet, assuming laying 11 to win 10. Not surprisingly, the table shows betting the under side to be the slightly better value, with a probability of winning 0.21% higher than over bets.
Under or Over Against the Total
| Side | Wins | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 3,232 | 0.492158 | -0.051561 |
| Under | 3,246 | 0.494290 | -0.047084 |
| Push | 89 | 0.013553 | |
| Total | 6,567 | 1.000000 | -0.044839 |
Money Line
The following table shows the expected return on money line bets, assuming one unit is bet per game. The return shows that betting road teams is the better value, with an expected return 0.53% higher.
Money Line Bet Nba Odds
Money Line by Side
Let us say UCLA is playing Notre Dame at the NCAAB. Notre Dame is the favorite in this case and the UCLA is the underdog (less likely to win according to the experts). The odds are listed as:
- Notre Dame (-110)
- UCLA (+110)
If you are betting $110 on Notre Dame and they win, you will get $100 back. If you are betting $100 on UCLA and they win, you will get $110 back. The (-) sign represents a favorite and the fact that you have to bet more on it to win less. The (+) sign represents an underdog and the fact that you have to bet less on it to win more.
Different Money Lines
The reason why there are different money lines for different teams is, basically, to provide an incentive for players to bet on underdogs. Without money lines, most of the players would bet on the favorites since the favorites are more likely to win. If all people bet on the favorites, a sportsbook will not be able to pay off all of the players in case they win. By providing more advantageous underdog money lines like in an above example, online sportsbooks create a market for both underdogs and favorites.
Basketball Money Line Betting Tips and Strategies
You should really go out there and compare money lines across different online basketball betting sites. Researching different basketball sportsbooks is one of the most widely used basketball money line strategies out there. Find the best possible odds for yourself; for example, if you are sure that the Chicago Bulls will beat the LA Lakers in a certain game, then look for the best possible odds for Chicago. If you see that one sportsbook offers +110 and another one offers +105 for Chicago, then go for the former as it will get you $5 more for every $100 bet you make – if your bet wins of course.
Basketball Stars
When it comes to basketball, particularly NBA, research latest news about different teams' star players. In basketball, star players can score between 20%-40% of the team's points. They can make or break the team. In fact, many teams' strategies are simply based on passing the ball to their star players. Such players like Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant (now earning around the likes of $23M, the current highest paid in NBA), Shaquille O'Neal, LeBron James and others have played a vital role in performance of their teams. For example, if you are looking to bet on the Miami Heat, try to look at LeBron's form in their upcoming game. If he is not playing or is injured, then Miami Heat might really not perform that well.
Money Line Nba Tonight
Introduction
This page addresses betting on basketball, specifically the NBA. The figures in this pages are based on 6,567 historical games, from seasons beginning 2013 to 2017. It is assumed the reader knows basic sports betting terminology. If this is not the case, please visit my page on sports betting first.
Betting Against the Spread
On average, the home team wins 58.4% of the time and scores 2.70 more points than the road team. However, betting against the spread, I show road teams to be the much better value, as the following table shows. The table is based on laying 11 to win 10. The return column shows the expected percentage of money won (or lost when negative) to money bet. As you can see, betting home teams has a house edge of 6.22%, while road teams are only 2.70%.
Road or Home Team Against the Spread
| Side | Wins | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Road | 3,280 | 0.499467 | -0.026981 |
| Home | 3,159 | 0.481042 | -0.062157 |
| Push | 128 | 0.019491 | |
| Total | 6,567 | 1.000000 | -0.044569 |
The next table shows the results betting on underdogs and favorites against the spread. This does not include the 61 games where the point spread was zero. I was expecting underdogs to do significantly better, but the results proved me wrong — they did only slightly better. As you can see, the probability of the underdog winning was only 0.4% greater than favorites. The return shows the ratio of expected player win (negative indicates a loss) to money bet, assuming the player is laying 11 to win 10.
Underdog or Favorite Against the Spread
| Side | Wins | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favorite | 3,176 | 0.488165 | -0.048375 |
| Underdog | 3,202 | 0.492161 | -0.040746 |
| Push | 128 | 0.019674 | |
| Total | 6,506 | 1.000000 | -0.044560 |
Overs and Unders
The following table shows how often each game went over, under, and fell exactly on the over/under line. The return column shows the ratio of player win to money bet, assuming laying 11 to win 10. Not surprisingly, the table shows betting the under side to be the slightly better value, with a probability of winning 0.21% higher than over bets.
Under or Over Against the Total
| Side | Wins | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 3,232 | 0.492158 | -0.051561 |
| Under | 3,246 | 0.494290 | -0.047084 |
| Push | 89 | 0.013553 | |
| Total | 6,567 | 1.000000 | -0.044839 |
Money Line
The following table shows the expected return on money line bets, assuming one unit is bet per game. The return shows that betting road teams is the better value, with an expected return 0.53% higher.
Money Line Bet Nba Odds
Money Line by Side
| Side | Total Bet | Total Return | Expected Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6,567 | 6,288.75 | -0.042371 |
| Road | 6,567 | 6,323.26 | -0.037115 |
| Total | 13,134 | 12,612.01 | -0.037115 |
The next table shows the expected return on money line bets, cut by whether the team is the underdog, favorite, or even. Change poker games. Surprisingly, to me at least, the table shows favorites to be the better value, with a return 0.46% higher.
Money Line by Favorite/Underdog
| Side | Total Bet | Total Return | Expected Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favorite | 6,506 | 6262.13 | -0.037483 |
| Underdog | 6,506 | 6232.14 | -0.042093 |
| Even | 122 | 117.74 | -0.034932 |
| Total | 13,134 | 12612.01 | -0.039743 |
The next table shows the actual and estimated probability of winning by point spread. The estimated probability uses logistic regression to smooth out the ups and downs.
Probability of Winning by Point Spread
| Spread | Wins | Games | Actual Probability | Estimated Probability | Fair Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -15.5 | 26 | 24 | 0.923077 | 0.922718 | -1194 |
| -15 | 40 | 39 | 0.975000 | 0.916818 | -1102 |
| -14.5 | 44 | 38 | 0.863636 | 0.910510 | -1017 |
| -14 | 49 | 44 | 0.897959 | 0.903774 | -939 |
| -13.5 | 76 | 70 | 0.921053 | 0.896589 | -867 |
| -13 | 69 | 64 | 0.927536 | 0.888933 | -800 |
| -12.5 | 88 | 80 | 0.909091 | 0.880786 | -739 |
| -12 | 102 | 87 | 0.852941 | 0.872127 | -682 |
| -11.5 | 125 | 109 | 0.872000 | 0.862937 | -630 |
| -11 | 130 | 112 | 0.861538 | 0.853198 | -581 |
| -10.5 | 135 | 113 | 0.837037 | 0.842893 | -537 |
| -10 | 168 | 132 | 0.785714 | 0.832006 | -495 |
| -9.5 | 174 | 138 | 0.793103 | 0.820527 | -457 |
| -9 | 231 | 191 | 0.826840 | 0.808443 | -422 |
| -8.5 | 206 | 154 | 0.747573 | 0.795748 | -390 |
| -8 | 248 | 193 | 0.778226 | 0.782438 | -360 |
| -7.5 | 273 | 194 | 0.710623 | 0.768513 | -332 |
| -7 | 269 | 186 | 0.691450 | 0.753978 | -306 |
| -6.5 | 314 | 227 | 0.722930 | 0.738839 | -283 |
| -6 | 337 | 237 | 0.703264 | 0.723112 | -261 |
| -5.5 | 336 | 209 | 0.622024 | 0.706812 | -241 |
| -5 | 358 | 245 | 0.684358 | 0.689965 | -223 |
| -4.5 | 348 | 224 | 0.643678 | 0.672599 | -205 |
| -4 | 344 | 205 | 0.595930 | 0.654746 | -190 |
| -3.5 | 328 | 186 | 0.567073 | 0.636446 | -175 |
| -3 | 349 | 195 | 0.558739 | 0.617742 | -162 |
| -2.5 | 340 | 199 | 0.585294 | 0.598683 | -149 |
| -2 | 367 | 206 | 0.561308 | 0.579320 | -138 |
| -1.5 | 283 | 157 | 0.554770 | 0.559710 | -127 |
| -1 | 254 | 135 | 0.531496 | 0.539913 | -117 |
| 1 | 254 | 119 | 0.468504 | 0.460087 | 117 |
| 1.5 | 283 | 126 | 0.445230 | 0.440290 | 127 |
| 2 | 367 | 161 | 0.438692 | 0.420680 | 138 |
| 2.5 | 340 | 141 | 0.414706 | 0.401317 | 149 |
| 3 | 349 | 154 | 0.441261 | 0.382258 | 162 |
| 3.5 | 328 | 142 | 0.432927 | 0.363554 | 175 |
| 4 | 344 | 139 | 0.404070 | 0.345254 | 190 |
| 4.5 | 347 | 124 | 0.357349 | 0.327401 | 205 |
| 5 | 358 | 113 | 0.315642 | 0.310035 | 223 |
| 5.5 | 336 | 127 | 0.377976 | 0.293188 | 241 |
| 6 | 337 | 100 | 0.296736 | 0.276888 | 261 |
| 6.5 | 314 | 87 | 0.277070 | 0.261161 | 283 |
| 7 | 269 | 83 | 0.308550 | 0.246022 | 306 |
| 7.5 | 273 | 79 | 0.289377 | 0.231487 | 332 |
| 8 | 248 | 55 | 0.221774 | 0.217562 | 360 |
| 8.5 | 206 | 52 | 0.252427 | 0.204252 | 390 |
| 9 | 231 | 40 | 0.173160 | 0.191557 | 422 |
| 9.5 | 174 | 36 | 0.206897 | 0.179473 | 457 |
| 10 | 168 | 36 | 0.214286 | 0.167994 | 495 |
| 10.5 | 135 | 22 | 0.162963 | 0.157107 | 537 |
| 11 | 130 | 18 | 0.138462 | 0.146802 | 581 |
| 11.5 | 125 | 16 | 0.128000 | 0.137063 | 630 |
| 12 | 102 | 15 | 0.147059 | 0.127873 | 682 |
| 12.5 | 88 | 8 | 0.090909 | 0.119214 | 739 |
| 13 | 69 | 5 | 0.072464 | 0.111067 | 800 |
| 13.5 | 76 | 6 | 0.078947 | 0.103411 | 867 |
| 14 | 49 | 5 | 0.102041 | 0.096226 | 939 |
| 14.5 | 44 | 6 | 0.136364 | 0.089490 | 1017 |
| 15 | 40 | 1 | 0.025000 | 0.083182 | 1102 |
| 15.5 | 26 | 2 | 0.076923 | 0.077282 | 1194 |
In the unlikely event you encounter a point spread with an absolute value greater than 15.5, then the probability of winning can be estimated as e^(-0.16*s)/(1+e^(-0.16*s)), where s is the point spread.
Internal Links
When I updated this page in 2018, there were a lot of obscure tables I was too lazy to update. However, I put too much effort into them at the time I made them to just throw them away. So, I split this off to Obscure Topics in Betting the NBA.
Written by: Michael Shackleford
